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The Estes Formula for Breeding Stakes Winners, by Joseph A. Estes

March 16, 2011

An average breeder will produce one stakes winner for every 48 matings. But if you know how to do it, you can, on average, produce one stakes winner from every eight matings. In The Estes Formula for Breeding Stakes Winners, copyright 1999, Joseph Estes describes the development of a better way for breeding racehorses. He created a system that used the science of genetics and other objective criteria in the selection of breeding stock, which could accurately predict the racing capacity of a racehorse. His system is called the Average Earnings Index, a key tool to breeding better racehorses.

A sports journalist by trade, Estes (1903-1970) was instrumental in the development of statistical methodologies for evaluating bloodstock. He worked closely with Iowa State professor Dr. Jay Lush, known as the father of quantitative genetics and applied Lush’s research on genetics to the study of thoroughbred breeding.

This book explains:

  • How to increase the odds of producing a stakes winner
  • What is the Average Earning Index
  • How to use the AEI in bloodstock selection
  • The theories and myths of racehorse breeding
  • The limited value of pedigree

There is a lot to learn in this book, and its value is multi-fold, especially in improving breeding. Estes’ formula for breeding a stakes winner is based on sound genetic principles and is statistically reliable. He debunks the myths of horse breeding and explains in simple language the precise method of dramatically improving the odds of breeding (or buying) a stakes winner.

If you’ve already read this book, please feel free to comment on whether this formula has helped.


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